Executive Summary

Q1 2025 came in seasonally weak: revenue fell to $71.3M and EPS to $(0.28), with EBITDA of $7.9M; management still declared a $0.15 dividend and launched a $50M buyback, signaling confidence despite near‑term softness .
Versus consensus, Q1 revenue materially beat ($71.3M vs $41.9M estimate), while EPS was essentially in line to a slight miss (−$0.28 vs −$0.28 estimate); Q2 TCE to date of $14,042 (68% fixed) points to improving rates into Q2 ; estimates marked with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
Near‑term headwinds included drydocking and weather-related cargo disruptions, but March rate snapback and materially higher Q2 Capesize fixtures (~$18,700/day) underscore operating leverage and an improving backdrop .
Catalysts: $50M buyback authorization, continued dividend discipline via reserve flexibility, and constructive supply-demand (low Capesize orderbook, long‑haul tonnage growth) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Proactive capital returns: $0.15 dividend (23rd consecutive) despite formula indicating zero, supported by reducing the voluntary reserve from $19.5M to ~$1.1M; $50M buyback program added as incremental tool to dividends .
Rates improved into Q2: fleet‑wide TCE to date $14,042 for 68% of owned days; Capesize ~$18,700/day (+40% vs Q1) indicating momentum and sector operating leverage .
Balance sheet strength preserved: net loan‑to‑value ~6%, cash $30.6M, revolver availability ~$324M, enabling both returns and opportunistic growth .

Quote: “Importantly, the share repurchase program is incremental to our quarterly dividend policy, which we intend to maintain as our primary method of returning cash to shareholders.”

What Went Wrong

Seasonal softness and operational impacts: Q1 revenue declined YoY and QoQ with TCE down to $11,884/day; net loss of $11.9M reflecting lower rates, fleet size, and increased drydock activity .
Minor bulk and coal demand volatility; USTR port fee uncertainty temporarily stalled chartering for a multi‑week stretch, adding pressure to Q1 volumes .
Higher DVOE YoY ($6,592/day vs $6,275/day) driven by crew, repair/maintenance, and insurance costs .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs prior periods

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$99.3	$99.2	$71.3
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$21.5	$12.7	$(11.9)
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.49	$0.29	$(0.28)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$40.3	$32.6	$7.9
Fleet-wide TCE ($/day)	$19,260	$18,007	$11,884

Segment TCE by Vessel Type

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Capesize TCE ($/day)	$26,951	$25,228	$13,059
Ultramax TCE ($/day)	$15,336	$14,812	$12,039
Supramax TCE ($/day)	$13,622	$11,830	$9,804

Operating KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Fleet Utilization (%)	97.9%	96.9%	98.0%
DVOE ($/day)	$6,423	$6,211	$6,592
Dividend per Share ($)	$0.40	$0.30	$0.15
Net Loan-to-Value (%)	5%	5%	6%
Cash ($USD Millions)	$46.98 (9M end)	$43.69 (FY end)	$30.6

Q1 2025 vs Wall Street Consensus

Metric	Actual	Consensus Mean*	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$71.3	$41.9*	+$29.4M (beat)
Primary EPS ($USD)	$(0.28)	$(0.28)*	~In line/slight miss

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Dividend per share	Q1 2025	Formula would have produced $0.00 (with $19.5M reserve)	$0.15 (reserve cut to ~$1.1M)	Raised vs formula by reserve reduction
Voluntary quarterly reserve	Q2 2025	$19.5M expected	$19.5M expected (flexible)	Maintained (Board may flex)
Fleet-wide TCE to date	Q2 2025	N/A	$14,042 for 68% owned days	New disclosure (improving rates)
Capesize fixtures to date	Q2 2025	N/A	~$18,700/day; >40% above Q1	New disclosure (strength in Capes)
DVOE budget	Q2 2025	$6,375/day estimate	$6,375/day estimate	Maintained
Drydock costs/offhire	Q2 2025	$21.94M; 356 offhire days	$21.94M; 356 offhire days	Maintained
Share repurchase	Ongoing	None	$50M authorization	New program

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Capital returns (dividend discipline)	Emphasized value strategy and reserve flexibility; paid $0.30 dividend	Declared $0.15 despite formula zero by cutting reserve; buyback is incremental to dividend	Consistent, enhanced via buyback
Drybulk rates and operating leverage	Noted seasonal softness early ’25 but constructive long-term fundamentals	March rally; Q2 TCE to date up 18% vs Q1; Capesize ~18.7k/day	Improving into Q2
Macro/trade and USTR port fees	Discussed tariffs and Red Sea route risk management	Clarified exemptions (<80k dwt; Capes in ballast) — no expected U.S. port fee impact	Clarity reduced near-term risk
Fleet renewal and asset values	Continued renewal; added 2016-built Capesize in Q4	Market for older ships liquid; newer asset values firm; limited newbuild slots	Supportive asset backdrop
Supply constraints	Smallest Cape orderbook; modest net fleet growth	Q1 had only 11 Cape deliveries; orderbook ~8% of fleet; aging fleet raises scrapping risk	Structurally supportive
Minor bulks/coal dynamics	Q1 seasonal grain shift and volatility	Coal weak early Q1 then steady; Brazil soybean buying; temporary market pause from USTR uncertainty	Mixed but stabilizing

Management Commentary

Strategic posture: “With an industry low net loan-to-value ratio of 6%… and over $320 million in undrawn revolver availability, we believe Genco remains in a highly advantageous position…” .
Returns policy: “It is incremental to the dividend policy… we plan to have [the buyback] in place for the foreseeable future.” .
Market outlook: “Cape rates rose from under $6,000 a day to nearly $24,000… highlighting significant operating leverage… catalysts are clear.” .
Balance sheet goals: “Net debt 0 is still a goal… could easily get there by the end of this year… may lever up modestly for accretive deals.” .

Q&A Highlights

Buyback rationale and cadence: Management sees it as opportunistic protection against extreme volatility; no expiration; incremental to dividend .
Asset values and S&P market: Newer vessels holding/increasing; limited modern tonnage for sale; newbuild prices firm with deliveries into 2028/29 .
USTR port fees: GNK expects exemption (<80k dwt and Capes in ballast); minimal U.S. exposure on Capes; no impact anticipated .
Minor bulks/coal: Early Q1 softness; coal steady later; temporary market disruption during USTR fee uncertainty (few weeks of limited new business) .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 actual vs consensus: Revenue $71.3M vs $41.9M* (beat); EPS −$0.28 vs −$0.28* (in line/slight miss). Implies top-line outperformance despite seasonal pressures, aided by March rate rebound ; values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
Forward adjustments: With Q2 TCE to date up 18% vs Q1, analysts may lift near‑term revenue/TCE assumptions, particularly on Capesize exposure .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near‑term softness appears transitory; Q2 fixtures and TCE to date indicate momentum, especially in Capesize, underpinning potential earnings rebound .
Capital return policy is durable: dividend maintained via reserve flexibility; $50M buyback offers downside support amid volatility .
Structural supply tailwinds (low Cape orderbook, aging fleet) set up favorable medium‑term rate dynamics; long‑haul iron ore/bauxite volume growth expected to absorb capacity .
Balance sheet optionality (6% net LTV; $324M revolver) enables opportunistic fleet renewal/growth without compromising dividends .
Watch execution on drydocking front‑loading and DVOE control; higher Q1 DVOE and planned offhire days should abate in 2H seasonally stronger periods .
Trading lens: Near‑term catalysts include Q2 rates, buyback deployment on weakness, and continued dividend stability; medium‑term thesis rests on asset leverage to improving drybulk cycle .